541
FXUS63 KTOP 070744
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
244 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR EAST KANSAS.
- RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STORMS
CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RELIEF TO THE HEAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS AND ANOTHER TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ITS WAY ACROSS KANSAS TODAY.
WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BISECTING THE STATE (EAST TO WEST),
AREAS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT WAA AND AMPLE
LIFT ALOFT. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE SURFACE TDS, MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. RECENT
CAM RUNS AND HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE BEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI - NEAREST TO THE STRONGEST 925MB AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES COULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS AND COULD CAUSE CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING IF SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. HREF
PROBS FOR AREAS SEEING OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL SITS AROUND 20-40%
FOR AREAS EAST OF TOPEKA AND LESS THAN 10% FOR AREAS WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST INTO MISSOURI LATER
THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AN UNCHANGED AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD
TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCAPE WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG. THAT SAID, SOME LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION WOULD
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE REGION FREE FROM CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION AND CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BY MONDAY EVENING, LINGERING CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MOVE EAST INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SHEAR VALUES, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL KS, BUT BETTER SEVERE STORM
CHANCES SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE SHORT-TERM STORM CHANCES, WE ARE MONITORING THE CONCERN FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. FOLLOWING
SUNDAY'S STORM CHANCES, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUMP IN WARM AND MOIST AIR. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH
TUESDAY POSSIBLY SEEING VALUES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. THE ONE
THING THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT WILL BE
WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE A BIT OF A COOLING EFFECT FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE IMPORTANT TO TRY TO AVOID
STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND REMAIN VERY
HYDRATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL RETURN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND ALSO BRING A BREAK TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. WEAK WAVES PASSING WITHIN THIS
FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY KEEP NEAR DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES BUT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT ANY DAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS PATTERN
WOULD LIKELY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP OF CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION TAMPERING OUT ANY PROLONGED HEAT WAVES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ENVELOPE THE TERMINALS BEFORE SHOWERS AND IFR CIGS
MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH. ADDED MENTION OF A VFR TEMPO GROUP AS STRATUS HAS
BEEN VARIABLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS CIGS BECOME VFR AND SLOWLY SCATTER OUT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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