287
FXUS63 KTOP 072332
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THEN
COMPLETELY ENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEADLINES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BUT
REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS.
- A MODIFIED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RELIEF TO THE HEAT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH VARIABILITY ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
CURRENTLY, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH A
MERIDIONAL TROUGH RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE WITH A SUBTROPICAL
CONNECTION IS CURRENTLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS
HELPING TO DRAW CONTINUAL GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION
HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE
FOR SEVERAL PERIODS. THUS, EXPECT CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN RANDOM EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SO, PERIODS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD
STILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS OFF AND ON.
OVERALL, SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ENTERING CENTRAL KS AREAS AT THE CURRENT TIME,
SO INTO THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL
ASCENT WILL SETUP INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR A
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY MIST.
THINKING A LIGHT BREEZE REMAINS OVERNIGHT, SO LOW CEILINGS SHOULD
RESULT RATHER THAN A FAVORABLE FOG SETUP. THIS MAKES A DREARY START
TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY LOOK MORE FAVORED. IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS WHERE INSTABILITY
FAVORS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OVERALL, SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS BUT ONE COULD
BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS CONSIDERING THE MOIST
PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A LIMITING FACTOR NOT IN FAVOR OF ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO THE BE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
STARTING TO REINFORCE AN EML OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
INTO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE PACIFIC TROUGH BROADENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE BEST SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONES SO THE SEVERE RISK
APPEARS HIGHEST OVER THOSE REGIONS. A THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE EML STRENGTHENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY EVEN WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH INTO
THE LOWER 70S IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT THAT GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL AREAS MAY BE LOOKING AT THE FIRST HEAT ADVISORY OF
THE SEASON FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY CARRYING INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL BETTER REFINE THIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND DAY
SHIFT TOMORROW TO DETERMINE INCLUSIVE ZONES.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES THE PACIFIC
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO PUSH THE
MODIFIED COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
BREAK THE BACK OF THE REMAINING THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE AND ALLOW FOR
MORE REASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES TO END THE WEEK
AHEAD AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
LIGHT RAIN COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT TOP/FOE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BUT MVFR CIGS COULD
AGAIN IMPACTS SITES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION FROM MODELS THAT PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES CURRENTLY. STRATUS
SEEMS LIKE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY. MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SCATTER MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR RETURNING AT THAT
POINT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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