839
FXUS63 KTOP 090537
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1237 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KS.
DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN HAZARD, ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE, SO A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED AREA-WIDE.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES COME LATER THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ONE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING WELL NORTH
INTO CANADA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
SOUTHWEST KS, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF THAT ACROSS OUR
AREA NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOTED VIA
VISIBLE SATELLITE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE. AHEAD
OF THESE BOUNDARIES, A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH 4000-5000 J/KG OF CAPE AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.
BY EARLY THIS EVENING, THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW TOWARDS CENTRAL KS AS WELL AS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. THIS WOULD INITIALLY
ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP BEFORE THEY CONGEAL
INTO A LINE LATER THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WE HAVE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT A
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, BACKED SFC WINDS
RESULT IN VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, SO
THERE IS A REASONABLE TORNADO RISK WITH INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS AS
WELL. CAMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THESE CELLS EVOLVING
INTO AN MCS, RESULTING IN DAMAGING WIND BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH TIME. IF STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH IN
NATURE, FLOODING COULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE, BUT IF THEY TURN INTO
MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE WITH TRAINING (AS INDICATED IN
SOME OF THE MORNING CAM GUIDANCE AS WELL), THIS WOULD PRESENT A
BIGGER FLOODING THREAT. IN ANY CASE, PWAT LOOKS TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 2 INCHES, WHICH IS EVEN HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEEN IN RECENT
DAYS. HREF MEAN HAS A SWATH OF QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-1.5", WHICH
SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE AVERAGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, 90TH
PERCENTILE HAS A SWATH OF 2-4" ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH
INDIVIDUAL HREF MEMBERS SHOWING ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAN THAT. THE HREF ALSO HAS A SIGNAL FOR RAINFALL RATES AT
LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THIS EVENING. WITH
THIS IN MIND ALONG, DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN
THAT MUCH OF THE CWA IS SENSITIVE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY, LEAVING A
HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ARE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY, BUT CONSIDERING
THIS IS THE FIRST ONE OF THE YEAR, DECIDED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY REACHING HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105, EVEN IF ONLY A FEW DEGREES SHORT.
MOST RAIN WEST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES MUCH
OF OUR AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN THE EVENING. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS COMES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD
PRESENT ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THAT FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO
THURSDAY, WITH LOWER STORM CHANCES LINGERING IN FAR EASTERN KS THAT
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND
105 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO TUESDAY. FROM THERE, TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN
LATER IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE BOWING SEGMENT WILL EXIT THE TERMINALS SHORTLY. CAMS SHOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED BY 10Z OR 11Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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