604
FXUS63 KTOP 091717
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 9PM TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FEEL LIKE IT IS 103 TO 110 DEGREES.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (30-60%) TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.
- A BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
APPARENT WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE SEVERE STORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER LAST NIGHT.
THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND HAVE NOT BEEN AS INTENSE. WITH
THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS WORKING OVER THE AIRMASS PRETTY GOOD, I
EXPECTED THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THE LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
IT IS HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ANY WEAK DRY LINE ALSO REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA. THE RAP
IS GOING AN INTERESTING THING IN TRYING TO KEEP A SUDO WARM FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING, IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE THIS PANNING OUT. SO
THINK THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM OUT WEST
AND POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KS. IF STORMS
MOVE INTO THE AREA, A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE OVER 5000
J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST KS. THIS SHOULD
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR MAY BE A LITTLE
BETTER AND AGAIN WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS FRONT
IS PROGGED TO STILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FRONT SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING A
BREAK FROM THE PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS BREAK DOESN'T LAST LONG AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.
SO THE FORECAST HAS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH BY MONDAY
WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NOT MUCH OF A DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS NEAR THE MVFR/VFR BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBS SUGGESTING IT STAYS GENERALLY
SCATTERED. ALSO WATCHING STORM POTENTIAL WEST OF MHK THIS EVENING,
BUT MOST CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS FALL APART BEFORE REACHING
THE TERMINAL.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...REESE
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