759
FXUS63 KTOP 281717
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH DAILY
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-110 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BEGINS TODAY AS
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND MIXING TO 850MB, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE
22-28 DEGREES C, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 100 DEGREES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOW 90S IN FAR EASTERN KANSAS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND IN
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 104-110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TAKES PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY; SMALL SPREADS IN
TEMPERATURES FROM ENSEMBLES LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE MUTED SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS
OR EVEN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE
HEAT INDICES MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
THESE DAYS, HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110
DEGREES. THUS, THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST SOME REPRIEVE TO COME
THIS WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE TRIES TO DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND INCREASES CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WIND-DRIVEN VFR TAFS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
DROP-OFF IN GUST SPEED OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW-LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING
WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET OVER SPREAD THE TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS KTOP AND KFOE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JUNE 28
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 80 (2018) 76
CONCORDIA 80 (1931) 77
JUNE 29
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (2018) 79
CONCORDIA 79 (1990) 80
JUNE 30
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 77 (2020) 79
CONCORDIA 79 (2011) 79
JULY 1
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 82 (1933) 77
CONCORDIA 86 (1933) 75
JULY 2
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 78 (1925) 76
CONCORDIA 78 (1974) 74
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (2012) 77
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 75
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN
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