725
FXUS63 KTOP 290510
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-110 DEGREES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS, BUT BEST (20%) CHANCES MAY COME
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
HOT AND HUMID IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL US. ACROSS THE
REGION, SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW STILL PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE
HIGH PLAINS AND HAS HELPED TO PUSH A STRONG SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS HAS LED TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS WITH VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECTING NORTHEAST AS NOTED ON LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN
RESPONSE, WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
90S ARE ALREADY COMMON ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KS AS OF NOON.
EXPECT WINDY AND VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HEAT INDICES TOP OUT IN THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, MINIMAL CHANGES WILL COME AS THE DOME
OF RIDGING DOMINATES THE EAST-CENTRAL US WITH KANSAS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP WARM, SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK. HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RANGE
FROM 100-110 DEGREES AS AIR TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOW-END CHANCES (10-20%) FOR RAIN/STORMS
ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL KS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT MAY
HELP TO MUTE TEMPERATURES A BIT. DRY AND HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. ALONG WITH HOT AFTERNOON CONDITIONS, MINIMAL
RELIEF WILL BE FELT OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTREME HEAT CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PUSHES
THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING FURTHER, TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 100S. GIVEN NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS,
SURFACE TDS STILL IN THE LOW 70S WILL KEEP HEAT INDICIES SATURDAY IN
THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. THE ONLY GLIMMER OF HOPE IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMES WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY THAT TRIES TO PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES SPREADS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEING
6-8 DEGREES AS OPPOSED TO THE 1-3 DEGREE SPREADS WE WILL SEE OVER
THIS COMING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS LIFTING NORTHWARD AROUND
12Z, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KTOP/KFOE. SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE 10 KTS SUSTAINED, UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JUNE 28
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 80 (2018) 76
CONCORDIA 80 (1931) 77
JUNE 29
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (2018) 79
CONCORDIA 79 (1990) 80
JUNE 30
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 77 (2020) 79
CONCORDIA 79 (2011) 78
JULY 1
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 82 (1933) 76
CONCORDIA 86 (1933) 76
JULY 2
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 78 (1925) 76
CONCORDIA 78 (1974) 75
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (2012) 77
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 75
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/GRIESEMER
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