140
FXUS63 KTOP 291057
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS THIS WEEK AS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES PEAK FROM 104 TO 110 THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY EVENING-THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A 1059 MB MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
QUIET THIS MORNING, OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST TODAY, IF NOT INCREASE SOME AS AN MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, DEEPENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS. UTILIZED THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM ALONG WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE HRRR TO BETTER
GRASP THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE LOW LEVELS, RESULTING IN
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD. LATEST RUNS
FROM THE CAMS HINT AT WEAK RADAR RETURNS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS, COINCIDING WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED PERTURBATION
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA EXHIBIT HIGH CLOUD BASES AND
OVERALL 10% PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IF A STORM WERE
ABLE TO DEVELOP, GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
THIS WEEK, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR EMBEDDED VORT MAXES TO
SPARK ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS BEGINNING
TUESDAY EVENING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IF THEY
CAN HOLD TOGETHER (20-30% NBM PROBABILITY OF >0.01 INCHES). HEADING
INTO MID WEEK, THE GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS PRECIPITATION TOWARDS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY, WHILE EC
MEMBERS SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND UPPER TROUGHING
FURTHER SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS IN THIS PERIOD. THIS SETUP ULTIMATELY
LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR >105
HEAT INDICES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
DANGEROUS HEAT WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, VERSUS HUMID CONDITIONS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AS SOUTH WINDS FROM 12 TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED REMAIN
GUSTY UP TO 35 KTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT
2 KFT DEVELOPS AFT 00Z ONCE AGAIN, HOWEVER WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING THE PROBABILITY FOR LLWS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JUNE 29
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (2018) 78
CONCORDIA 79 (1990) 79
JUNE 30
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 77 (2020) 78
CONCORDIA 79 (2011) 78
JULY 1
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 82 (1933) 77
CONCORDIA 86 (1933) 75
JULY 2
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 78 (1925) 77
CONCORDIA 78 (1974) 75
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (2012) 76
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 74
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...22/GRIESEMER
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