345
FXUS63 KTOP 292311
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST WITH HEAT INDICES COMMONLY
REACHING 100 TO 105.
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT INCREASING CHANCES LATE
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
KEEPS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A DIRTY RIDGE
RESULTING WITH SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK WAVES IN
THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THOUGH DEWPOINT VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO COME DOWN SOMEWHAT, WHICH SEEMS TO MATCH MID-DAY
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM. HEAT INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
105 TODAY BUT NOT BE QUITE AS HOT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER WARM
WITH A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME HIGH CLOUD KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHEST-
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DETAILS. THE HEAT MAY BUILD AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY AS MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO PLACE. QUESTIONS IN HOW HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE REMAIN
SO HAVE NOT EXPECTED THE WARNING YET, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY BEING THE HOTTEST OF THIS STRETCH.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED IN SMALL PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BACK OFF AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONVECTION MAY FORM TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW BUT
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY IN EITHER AREA MAKING IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA
ARE REMOTE. CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF LEADING TO GREATER WEAK WAVE POTENTIAL.
GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO COME AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY LESSEN A BIT
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD STAY GUSTY ENOUGH TO AVOID LLWS. GUSTS MOST OF
THE TIME WILL BE 25-30 KTS, ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET TODAY AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CEILINGS STAY VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JUNE 29
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1936, 2018) 79
CONCORDIA 79 (1911, 1931, 1934,
1936, 1990, 2011) 79
JUNE 30
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 77 (1911, 1917, 1931
1933, 1970, 2020) 80
CONCORDIA 79 (2011) 80
JULY 1
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 82 (1933) 77
CONCORDIA 86 (1933) 76
JULY 2
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 78 (1925) 77
CONCORDIA 78 (1974) 75
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 76
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 75
JULY 4
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1911, 1969) 76
CONCORDIA 82 (1934) 76
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...REESE
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/GRIESEMER
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