507
FXUS63 KTOP 300747
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
247 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 110, PEAKING BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY
LOW.
- THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY IS LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED REGION WIDE AS
CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS ARE INCREASING SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEAST AROUND THE EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. CLUSTER
OF STORMS IN WESTERN OK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE FORM OF
MID CLOUDS AS THEY ENTER CENTRAL KS LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER ENSUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD. BASED ON PREVIOUS
OBS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TRENDS IN SHORT TERM MODELS OF HIGHER
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR READINGS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. THIS SHOULD STILL RESULT IN PEAK
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE. MULTIPLE, WEAK PERTURBATIONS
EJECT INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING, GENERATING POTENTIAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR STORMS TO ENTER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING, HOWEVER MOST
CAMS WEAKEN CONVECTION BEFORE THEY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY UPDRAFT.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO OCCURS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH BASED STORMS
IN WESTERN KANSAS CLUSTERING TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEFORE
WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
FROM THESE STORMS COULD HOLD HIGHS BACK BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS. HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 ARE MOST LIKELY IN FAR EASTERN KANSAS
WHERE LESSER CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD
WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SIGNALING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAT
INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON (<5 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE
25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE). OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE CLUSTERS OF
STRONGER STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION, TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF
THESE STORMS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS COULD VERY WELL IMPACT
OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES SO IT'S IMPORTANT TO CHECK BACK THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK FOR FORECAST UPDATES. SUNDAY'S STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS FORM THE PRIOR EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE LLWS. GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN
AGAIN AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JUNE 30
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 77 (1911, 1917, 1931
1933, 1970, 2020) 80
CONCORDIA 79 (2011) 79
JULY 1
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 82 (1933) 78
CONCORDIA 86 (1933) 76
JULY 2
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 78 (1925) 77
CONCORDIA 78 (1974) 74
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 77
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 74
JULY 4
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1911, 1969) 77
CONCORDIA 82 (1934) 75
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/GRIESEMER
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