610
FXUS63 KTOP 010707
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
207 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 108, PEAKING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NEAR RECORD WARMTH IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE IS ISOLATED AT BEST WHILE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW.
- A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE WILL LEAD TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER NE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT THIS MORNING, LIFTING A FEW EMBEDDED
WAVES FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A FEW
DECAYING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM MORRIS TO RILEY COUNTIES WHILE
SCATTERED, STRONGER STORMS ARE FURTHER WEST IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS IN NORTHEAST
KANSAS SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE,
LEADING RESIDUAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEPTH OF
WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS IS NOT AS STRONG DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED, GUSTING TO
30 MPH. DENSER CLOUD COVER IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FROM THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER
IS LESS SPARSE, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S
WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 105
DEGREES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE 105 OVER EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED ELSEWHERE AS HEAT INDICES
ARE NEAR 100 DEGREES.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 700 MB, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SPRINKLES OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE MORNING,
BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS EVENING,
ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE TRIGGERS CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING EASTWARD TO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP
OVER NEBRASKA WITH THE LATEST NAMNEST BEING AN OUTLIER FOR STORMS
BYPASSING REPUBLIC COUNTY. GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT FOCUSING WELL WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMED
APPROPRIATE WHILE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW.
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE WESTWARD, LIFTING
THE SOUTHWESTERLIES NORTHWARD HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING HEAT
INDICES UP TO 108 DEGREES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY EXCEPT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING BEING EXPANDED
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AROUND 06Z SUNDAY AND
THEREAFTER. IF THE STORMS HAVE AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS. A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF
THE BOUNDARY, HEAT INDICES MAY BE ABLE REACH 100-105 DEGREES IN FAR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ONCE AGAIN. NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE WEAK NORTHERN TROUGHING SIGNALS
OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT UNFORTUNATELY STILL HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
MARGINAL SPEED LLWS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG NEAR 45 KTS
AT 2 KFT. REMOVED THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT BASED ON OBS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. VFR PREVAILS AT TERMINALS AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AFT 14Z,
GUSTING OVER 20 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JULY 1
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 82 (1933) 76
CONCORDIA 86 (1933) 75
JULY 2
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 78 (1925) 77
CONCORDIA 78 (1974) 74
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 77
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 75
JULY 4
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1911, 1969) 76
CONCORDIA 82 (1934) 73
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ026-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/GRIESEMER
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