054
FXUS63 KTOP 020523
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES EACH DAY PEAKING
FROM AROUND 100 TO AROUND 105 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO DAILY
RECORD HIGHEST VALUES.
- SMALL CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN AND NEAR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
UPPER HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAS KEEPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVERHEAD, WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL PLUME STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO MEXICO. LEE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE WAS KEEPING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE WITH MIDDAY DEWPOINTS
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN THE GOING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME CHANCE FOR MORE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH IN STABILITY FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER FLOW ALTERS TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN TO CUT OFF THE PLUME. CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE LEE
TROUGH SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THIS FAR NORTHEAST
IN DRIER 700-850 MB AIR DESPITE A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO COME
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO NEBRASKA AND SPARKS
CONVECTION NEAR IT THAT COULD TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. THE OVERALL SIGNAL FOR THIS HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN
RECENT DAYS BUT STILL REMAINS CONCERNING GIVEN EVENING ACTIVITIES.
TIMING OF THIS COULD WELL BE AFTER 06Z LIMITING ITS IMPACTS AND
COULD EASILY LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS RETURNING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES TO THE NORTH. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH MAY STAY SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN NORMAL. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT A PERSISTENCE PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105. HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY
AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT WITH MORE
CONSISTENT HIGHER HEAT IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIP HAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST BEEN ABSENT. PROLONGED
PERIODS OF THICKER CLOUD MAY KEEP SOME PLACES SOMEWHAT COOLER ON ANY
GIVEN DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS BECOME GUSTY
AROUND 14Z. GUSTS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES, IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR A SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM NEAR TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JULY 2
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 78 (1925) 77
CONCORDIA 78 (1974) 72
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 76
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 74
JULY 4
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1911, 1969) 76
CONCORDIA 82 (1934) 73
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ038-
KSZ054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ026-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/POAGE
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