562
FXUS63 KTOP 021039
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STILL HOT AND HUMID TODAY, BUT SLIGHTLY LESS SO WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-102.
- A TOUCH WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO 100-105 DEGREES
- LOW CHANCE (15-25%) FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- HIGHER CHANCES (40-60%) FOR STORMS COME SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. DETAILS IN TIMING, LOCATION, AND SEVERITY REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS KEEPS A PLUME OF HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS PLUME ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO
PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, LEADING TO A LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN
TIMING, COVERAGE, AND LOCATION OF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT OF ANY STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO FORM. CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS KEPT HIGHS LOWER
THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY, SO HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THIS
AREA, SO THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LESS CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO MARGINALLY HOTTER
CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST, MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-102 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AN EMPORIA TO ALMA TO
HIAWATHA LINE.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NEW SIGNAL FOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MARCH EASTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 10 PM. THE 00Z
HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CONVECTION, DEPICTING
SOME NEAR- SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEFORE THE OUTFLOW PUSHES AHEAD AND CONVECTION WEAKENS. A COUPLE
OTHER CAMS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS, BUT A FASTER WEAKENING TREND
IN ANY COMPLEX THAT DOES EVOLVE, INCLUDING THE 06Z HRRR. ADDED
SOME POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
CONSISTENCY FROM CAMS BEFORE BUYING INTO THE MORE ROBUST 00Z
HRRR SOLUTION.
SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. EXPECT
LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 90S. HUMIDITY REMAINS, SO MOST LOCALES WILL SEE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100, WITH SOME SPOTS AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE HEAT ADVISORY FARTHER WEST.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND IN NEBRASKA COULD
IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN. IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVES IN FROM NEBRASKA, IT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO START THE DAY
BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, HEAT INDICES
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED, REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MOST AND UP TO
106 ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN NEBRASKA MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30KTS AND A COUPLE THOUSAND
J/KG OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE
TIMING, LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS REMAINS UNCLEAR THIS
FAR OUT. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT ANY
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION OVER THE COMING DAYS.
PREDICTABILITY DECREASES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE REGION. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BROADLY HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, BUT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES DO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND PM HEAT INDICES LARGELY IN THE 90-100
DEGREE RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS BECOME GUSTY THIS
MORNING. GUSTS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES, IN THE 20-25KT RANGE.
LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR A SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 342 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JULY 2
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 78 (1925) 76
CONCORDIA 78 (1974) 74
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 77
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 75
JULY 4
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1911, 1969) 76
CONCORDIA 82 (1934) 74
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ038-
KSZ054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ026-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/POAGE
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