838
FXUS63 KTOP 022310
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY ELEMENT OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING HIGH. EXPECT HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO APPROACH OR REACH 105 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY OVER
EAST-CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
- STORMS MOVING IN FROM WESTERN KANSAS APPEAR VERY LOW CHANCE
TONIGHT BUT IF THEY DO, THEN WIND MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS.
- MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION
HOLDING ON.
- FRIDAY NIGHT STORM CHANCES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME BUT A FEW MAY
MAKE A RUN INTO THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
- THE 4TH OF JULY ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS STILL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED
AFTER DARK RANGING FORM A 40 TO 60% CHANCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SLOW TO CHANGE WITH A WEAKENING OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE, A SEMI-PERMANENT
BERMUDA HIGH ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE A
PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND A
BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
LIFTING GRADUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS, THE OVERALL PATTERN LEADS TO A LOW
PREDICTABILITY FORECAST GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED OVERALL UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AREAS,
LIMITED MIXING AND OVERALL LOWER TEMPERATURES HAVE HELP LEAD TO
LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES HOLDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. FURTHER
EAST, THE THE RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP KEEP OVERALL CLOUD
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
IN PLACE. THUS, HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO AROUND
100 TO 105 RANGE. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH FOR EASTERN AREAS WILL HELP KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOMORROW AND THE 4TH OF JULY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS PERSISTING OVER
WESTERN KS WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED CU FIELD. THE SHORT-TERM CAMS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING TO CATCH ON SO LOW PREDICTABILITY ON THAT
FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW REMAINS OVERALL WEAK, BUT IF THESE
STORMS GROW UPSCALE AND BEGIN TO PROPAGATE, THEY COULD ADVANCE EAST
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIE OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS. WOULD EXPECT
THAT IF THEY DO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST THAT WIND PROBABLY REMAINS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY HELP SATURATE THE
MID LEVELS TO HELP THE ISENTROPIC RESPONSES IN THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO HELP CONDENSE. HAVE MENTIONED OR KEPT
15-20% POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN KS FOR
TOMORROW MORNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT FURTHER AND ADVANCE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE AGAIN IS HINTING THAT A
SMALL SCALE MCS MAY FORM AND ADVANCE EAST BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR SOUTH DOES THE OUTFLOW ADVANCE WHICH MAY BRING INCREASE STORM
CHANCES TO THE HIGHWAY 36 AREAS. THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH AT
THIS TIME AND VERY WELL COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BIGGER QUESTION AND IS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY AND WHERE GUIDANCE
REMAINS ESSENTIALLY SPLIT ON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AS THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS TRANSITIONS TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHERE
ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HELPS
ENHANCE THE LOCAL SHEAR WHICH MAY FOSTER MORE ROBUST STORM
ORGANIZATION TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE CONGEALING INTO AN MCS. WHERE THE
THETA-E RIDGE IS MOST PRONOUNCED WOULD BE A SENSIBLE AREA FOR THE
RESULTING UPDRAFTS TO TRACK INTO AND BE MAINTAINED. AGAIN, IT ISN'T
YET CLEAR WHERE THIS MESOSCALE SETUP IS BEST PLACED, SO STORMS COULD
RIDE DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA OR REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT
STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WOULDN'T BE ON TRACK TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
DARK. SINCE THIS IS OBVIOUSLY AN IMPORTANT DAY, STAY TUNED THROUGH
TOMORROW AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY DURING THE DAY FOR UPDATES.
UNFORTUNATELY, PREDICTABILITY IS STILL TOO LOW TO HONE INTO ON EXACT
TIMES OR EVEN RAISE THE OVERALL CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD ON SATURDAY. ALSO, THE INTENSITY OF
STORMS IS LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR TAFS PERSIST AT ALL SITES OVER THE PERIOD. WINDS STAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KMHK FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO
KEPT MENTION IN THE TAF.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 342 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 76
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 74
JULY 4
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1911, 1969) 75
CONCORDIA 82 (1934) 73
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ038-
KSZ054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ026-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
CLIMATE...DRAKE/POAGE
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