573
FXUS63 KTOP 031343
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
843 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID AREA-
WIDE.
- THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD IF THEY DO.
- PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY AS
TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SETUP
FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 843 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB OF SIMULATING THE CONVECTION ONGOING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TREND,
HAVE ADDED SOME POPS WITH COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. THE 06Z NAM AND 11Z RAP SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENING AND BACKING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS
OCCURS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO FALL APART. SO ONLY HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS UNTIL 11AM OR SO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
UPPER RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION, LEAVING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS
HAVE LED TO AREAS OF CONVECTION IN PARTS OF ND/SD/NE/IA. ENOUGH MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT TO BRING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO KS. LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TODAY, THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN SOME HEADING INTO SATURDAY (MORE ON THAT LATER).
FOR TODAY, WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN NORTHWEST KS EARLY THIS MORNING TO SEE IF ANY OF THAT ACTIVITY
MAKES IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS RATHER
WEAK, SO AM NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND CAMS
GENERALLY AGREE. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST, BUT CLOUD COVER COULD
POTENTIALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP AS QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING. EVEN SO, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER WHERE DEEPER MIXING HELPS
LOWER DEW POINTS. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HEAT
HEADLINES.
BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, ANOTHER SUBTLE PERTURBATION LOOKS TO
EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS AND TRIGGER STORMS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHICH THEN EVOLVE INTO AN MCS
THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE VARYING IDEAS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
WILL GO INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH THE HRRR NOTABLY BEING THE
SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION. THE 06Z RUN HAS SHOWN A DELAY IN TIMING WITH
STORMS ENTERING OUR NORTH CLOSER TO 3-4AM INSTEAD OF MIDNIGHT LIKE
THE 00Z/18Z RUNS. THIS LATER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN STORMS LINGERING LONGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND WOULD PUSH
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL, WHICH COULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST. OTHER CAMS ALSO SHOW A BOUNDARY
SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA SATURDAY, SO THE LOCATION OF THIS WILL BE KEY
IN WHERE STORMS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO REDEVELOP LATER AND PROBABLY
WON'T BE KNOWN FOR CERTAIN UNTIL WE SEE THE EARLY MORNING STORMS
ROLL THROUGH. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE THREAT WITH LATER STORMS MAY BE GREATEST IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TIMING AND SEVERITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
BUT STILL LOOK TO BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND AS THE MAIN CONCERN.
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT LESS HOT WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND GIVING US NORTH WINDS BRIEFLY. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. TOWARDS MID-WEEK, HOWEVER, THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED AGAIN WITH RISING HEIGHTS HELPING TO
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
ABOUT SUNSET. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN STORMS REACHING TERMINALS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR MENTION, ALTHOUGH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AT TIMES LATE IN THIS
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 342 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
JULY 3
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 79 (1911, 1999, 2012) 76
CONCORDIA 80 (1934) 74
JULY 4
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1911, 1969) 75
CONCORDIA 82 (1934) 73
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ038-
KSZ054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ026-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
UPDATE...WOLTERS
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
CLIMATE...DRAKE/POAGE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page