227
FXUS63 KTOP 041725
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SCATTERED, HIT-OR-MISS STORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS QUITE LOW, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD.
- PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS MAY STILL SEE HEAT INDICES 100-104
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS LIMITS
CONFIDENCE.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. WITHIN THE MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ONE WEAK
PERTURBATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, WHICH HAVE NOW LAID AN EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES
(AND/OR GRAVITY WAVE STRUCTURES) ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. FARTHER WEST,
RENEWED CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KS AND
EASTERN CO. HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE MORNING AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GIVEN MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
THE OVERALL HIGH AMOUNT OF CONVECTION, CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL
PLAY OUT IS VERY LOW. CAN ALMOST GUARANTEE THAT CAM GUIDANCE WILL
NOT VERY USEFUL.
TWO OPPOSING SCENARIOS SEEM PLAUSIBLE, TIED TO THE EVOLUTION OF
MORNING CONVECTION. 1 - IF CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS THIS MORNING, THIS WOULD REINFORCE
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HERE MOSTLY IN THE 80S,
AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF PM STORM REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF US.
2 - ALTERNATIVELY, IF MORNING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TAPERS OFF
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WOULD
LARGELY WASH OUT. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER, DEEPER MIXING WOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S, AND HEAT INDICES AROUND OR ABOVE 100
WOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS. AS THE WARM SECTOR
STAYS FARTHER NORTH, REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG
INSTABILITY (3000-4000 J/KG ML CAPE) AND DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR (25-
35 KTS) WOULD THEN SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, A MIX OF MULTI-CELLS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS COULD
OCCUR, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEFLY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS.
OF THESE TWO SCENARIOS, THE FORMER SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
LIKELY, BUT BOTH SCENARIOS (OR SOMETHING IN BETWEEN) SEEM PLAUSIBLE.
SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUALLY REASSESS THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WE'LL SEE A QUIETER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FEW
DAYS. TODAY'S MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY TO OUR
EAST, TURNING FLOW OVER THE PLAINS MORE NORTHERLY. STRONGER RIDGING
TO OUR WEST MEANS THERE WON'T BE ANY TRULY COOL AIR AROUND. BUT
WE'LL STILL SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS SUNDAY, BUT MOST OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL STAY DRY. WE RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL DURING THIS TIME- FRAME, AS MULTIPLE QUICK-
MOVING AND LOW- AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THIS
WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL THINK THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION
AND MESO-HIGH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BULK OF GUIDANCE SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS ALONG AN 850MB BOUNDARY. THIS FITS WITH THE CURRENT
ANALYSIS, BUT THEN THERE ARE THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS. SO THE
OVERALL PROB LOOKS TO BE AROUND 30 PERCENT THROUGH 02Z AND SINCE
PREDICTABILITY OF STORMS IS LOW, WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND AMEND
AS NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
THAT MAY DEVELOP.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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