817
FXUS63 KTOP 041857
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
157 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS.
- IF STORMS FORM, THERE IS A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. BE
READY TO MOVE INDOORS IF A THUNDERSTORM THREATENS YOUR LOCATION.
- A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AS WE BEGIN THE
NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCV MOVING INTO MO BUT PROFILER
DATA ACROSS EASTERN NEB WITH VEERING 500MB WINDS HINTED AT A SECOND
PERTURBATION MOVING ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY TOO. A LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, CONVECTION
FROM EARLIER TODAY CAUSED A MESO-HIGH TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
WITH THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHUNTED SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN OK.
FOR THIS EVENING THE BIG PICTURE IS FOR REDEVELOPMENT TO BE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS WHERE AN 850MB BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE. THIS
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN KTWX AND KICT RIGHT NOW. BUT THERE IS ALSO THE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WIND SHIFT COMING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KS. I
WOULD EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO ONLY REINFORCE THE MESO-HIGH AND
KEEP THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THE
PREDICTABILITY IN THIS WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IS POOR AS EVIDENT
BY THE CAMS PERFORMANCE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO REFORM. THE FORECAST HAS CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG I-70 IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN THE 55 TO 75 PERCENT
RANGE DUE TO A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB BOUNDARY. IF STORMS
DEVELOP, THE RAP/NAM STILL PROG STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 30KT
TO 40KT OF BULK SHEAR. DISCRETE STORMS MAY HAVE SOME SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
BUT WEAK STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR STORM MERGERS AND AND
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS WITH A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND RAIN. IF THE LATEST MODELS ARE RIGHT, THIS TRANSITION MAY BE AS
THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN KS. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DRY WEATHER THIS
EVENING.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER TONIGHT. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF SOME WEAK VORT MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE MO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING ANY
POP UP SHOWERS EAST OF THE AREA. SO HAVE DRY FORECAST WITH PRECIP
CHANCES AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS. THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD SEE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
LOCALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS PROGGED TO FAVOR WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS
REMAIN SEASONAL. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS POSSIBLE. SO CHANCES
FOR PRECIP RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THIS
WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL THINK THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION
AND MESO-HIGH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BULK OF GUIDANCE SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS ALONG AN 850MB BOUNDARY. THIS FITS WITH THE CURRENT
ANALYSIS, BUT THEN THERE ARE THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS. SO THE
OVERALL PROB LOOKS TO BE AROUND 30 PERCENT THROUGH 02Z AND SINCE
PREDICTABILITY OF STORMS IS LOW, WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND AMEND
AS NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
THAT MAY DEVELOP.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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