977
FXUS63 KTOP 192319
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
619 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE HIT OR MISS WITH MOST
AREAS REMAINING DRY.
- HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 95-100, LEADING TO HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AND THE UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER UT/CO.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN TX.
THE MAIN UPPER JET EXTENDED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. A TROPICAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF, NORTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY.
THE 17Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST KS, THEN NORTHWEST INTO
WESTERN KS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF KANSAS CITY. THE OBSERVATION AT KTOP
WAS 88/77, WHICH WOULD PLACE THE HEAT INDEX AT 106 DEGREES. WE COULD
HAVE HAD A ADVISORY IN PLACE, GIVEN THE HEAT INDICES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IF MIXING DEEPENS AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE THE
TEMPERATURES A BIT, AND THE DEEPER MIXING MAY DROP DEWPOINTS A FEW
MORE DEGREES. ITS A BIT TOO LATE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY BUT BE CAREFUL
NOT TO OVER EXERT YOURSELF THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
AN INVERTED H5 TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX,
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO. THE H5 INVERTED TROUGH
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO, FAR THE PBL IS NOT MIXING AS DEEP AND PREVIOUS MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING. ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z MON.
THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF KS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES,
COULD CAUSE A FEW WEAK AND SHOR-LIVED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO MIXING THE PBL TO DEEP, ALLOWING FOR
DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER, IF WE KEEP
LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, WE WILL SEE HEAT INDICES
IN THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. SO, I WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY
GOING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
AN H5 TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CAN WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. RAP AND
NAM12 ARE FASTER BRINING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THESE MODELS VERITY, WE MAY SEE 100-105 DEGREE
HEAT INDICIES ACROSS SOUTHERN COFFEE AND SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES.
IF THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS FASTER, THEN ALL OF THE CWA WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES UNDER 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER, IF
THE FRONT IS SLOWER, THEN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY SEE HEAT INDICES
OF 104-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SPEED OF THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER, THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO, A SLOWER
FRONT MAY PROVIDE SFC CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETROGRADING
THE H5 RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN TX. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK NORTH BY
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WEST TX/NM WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STORM AGAIN TOMORROW WITH PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER, FOR NOW, A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE MAY BE IN PLACE SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THE CAP WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT BE DO VEER TO THE SSW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE
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