007
FXUS63 KTOP 201040
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH IN THE 80S.
- A HOT AND DRY PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP THIS WEEKEND CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE MEAN WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE OBS SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN REMAINED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FAVORING LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
FOR TODAY MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST WITH HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP MID LEVEL TEMPS
WARM WITH 700MB READINGS OF 13C OR BETTER PROGGED TO SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE INHIBITION FOR
SURFACE PARCELS MARGINALLY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE FAVORS GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE. SO THINK WE SHOULD AVOID THE AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWERS
TODAY. IF A SHOWER WERE TO FORM, IT MOST LIKELY WOULD BE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND INHIBITION
SHOULD BE WEAKER. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100 DEGREES. STILL THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE
HEAT ADVISORY IS HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AND
MODELS DON'T REALLY SHOW MUCH OF A DIFFERENT STORY FROM THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER
60S THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND POSSIBLY
HELPING A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING, HAVE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. STILL HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE NEAR
105. AND FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 70S, THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE FOR HEAT INDICES TO BE
AROUND 105 DEGREES. SO HAVEN'T MADE ANY CHANCES TO THE ADVISORY FOR
TODAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE ISN'T A LOT
OF COLD AIR WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND MODELS WANT TO POOL SOME MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS HIGHS SHOULD STILL MAKE THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KS RIVER. WITH THE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HEAT INDICES COULD BE NEAR 105 THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON AND COFFEY COUNTIES. SO WENT AHEAD WITH AN
ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME WARM
AIR AT 700MB WITH NO REAL WAVE TO WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION. SO
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A BETTER DEFINED VORT MAX ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR FRIDAY. THE NBM HAS COME IN WITH
HIGHER POPS FOR THESE TIMES AND DON'T SEE A REASON TO CHANGE THEM.
THE ENSEMBLES TEND TO HAVE THE GREATEST SPREAD IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THEY STRUGGLE WITH HOW QUICKLY TO WEAKEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND BRING RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY, THINK THE NBM IS
ON TRACK WITH KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES PUSHING THE WESTERLIES BACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD ENABLE A DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN TO REDEVELOP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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