492
FXUS63 KTOP 210516
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1216 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICIES OF 105-110 TODAY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH IN THE 80S.
- A HOT AND DRY PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP THIS WEEKEND CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST
AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING
THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY AS DEWPOINTS FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY, IT WILL FEEL
NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. AS
THE FRONT SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FAVORED TO
RE‑EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID‑90S AND
LOWER, MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TERMINALS EARLY, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN
NORTH OF AIRPORTS TODAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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