463
FXUS63 KTOP 220508
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-COOLER, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MID-WEEK. SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
-HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK IN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
A PERIOD OF COOLER, AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK
BEFORE A WARM-UP ACCELERATES TOWARD THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THAT DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AND LOW 100S BY
SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY (90S), NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED INTO THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR SOME.
EVEN MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD FEATURES TWO DISTINCT PHASES. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOME MODELS WANT TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH, BUT WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, MINIMAL,
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO REACH THE GROUND. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING REPRESENTS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ENSEMBLES FAVOR
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
EVEN MORE THAN THAT IF MORE INSTABILITY/THUNDERSTORMS MATERIALIZE OR
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (2+ INCH PWATS).
SATURDAY BRINGS A TRANSITION BACK TO FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS. WEEKEND HEATING INTENSIFIES SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB
STEADILY INTO THE 90S AND EVEN LOW 100S BY SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RETURN, SO HEAT INDICES MAY
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 105.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONTINUES THIS PERIOD. LOW CHANCES FOR SH LOOK TO MAINLY EXIST
NORTH OF AIRPORTS TODAY SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. NORTHEAST WINDS COULD APPROACH 10 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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