656
FXUS63 KTOP 240543
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1243 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS TONIGHT. 40-60% CHANCES FOR GREATER
THAN 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES.
- DANGEROUS HEAT RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND - ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-110
DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.
- A BRIEF COOL-DOWN AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP
BY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THIS MORNING'S RAIN HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END WITH
SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SEEING 1-2.5" OF RAINFALL!
ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT - MORE ON THIS LATER. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY, BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT MUCH
WARMING AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE UPPER 70S. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ALOFT, A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL
DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THE RIDGE. BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INCREASING MID-LEVEL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL AID IN LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. PWATS RANGING FROM 2-2.25" SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE MAIN AXIS OF QPF FALL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND THUS,
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS STAYS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 WILL STILL SEE RAIN, BUT
TOTALS MAY ONLY RANGE FROM 0.25"-0.75" WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1
INCH TOTALS. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
CLOSER TO 2 INCHES. NBM PROBABILITIES OF RAIN TOTALS GREATER THAN AN
INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 RANGE FROM 50-80% WITH PROBS DROPPING
TO 25-50% FOR TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
FLOODING OCCURRING BY FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW
HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. RAIN LINGERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY THAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE YET AGAIN. EXPECTATION IS FOR AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO CLEAR CLOUDS BY THE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE AFTERNOON WHEREAS AREAS FURTHER EAST MAY
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BEFORE HIGHS BUILD INTO THE UPPER
90S AND LOW 100S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR
AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM 95 TO
103 DEGREES GIVEN THE SMALL ENSEMBLE SPREADS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL, NORTH-CENTRAL AND ALONG/SOUTH I-70 EXCEEDING
100 DEGREES MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 60-90%. HEAT INDICES
EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE 100-
110 DEGREE RANGE.
SOME REPRIEVE IN THE DANGEROUS HEAT MAY COME BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SINKS A BIT SOUTH AND ALLOWS MID-LEVEL ENERGY/WAVES TO
FILTER INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LOW-END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREADS BY NEXT
WEEKEND CURRENTLY SIT BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
FOR THE BALANCE OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND
STORMS GENERALLY WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST BATCH
IS TRENDING TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 LEAVING MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO NORTH OF I-70 WHICH IS REASON TO
LEAVE VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME. THEN FROM WEST TO EAST, THERE COULD
BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE. AS THE
UPPER WAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT THEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN STRATUS INTO THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR LEVELS FOR NOW
BUT CLOUD BASES COULD DROP INTO THE MARGINAL VFR CATEGORIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS INTO THE MORNING OVER WESTERN AREAS TO BETTER GAUGE THE EXTENT
OF POSSIBLE AFTERNOON LOW-LEVEL STRATUS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...DRAKE
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