098
FXUS63 KTOP 250824
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER BY MID-WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH UNORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO LOW-
LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME MID CLOUD
REMAINS BUT DRYING MID-LEVELS BRINGS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH STEADILY WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY PER LREF MEANS. CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THE MORE HUMID AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LREF MEANS IS ON TRACK FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST SUNDAY, AND WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S NOT FAR TO THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY, A MUCH WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFICS CONTINUES TO LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME CHANCE
FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO ENTER THE AREA AND A GENERALLY DRYING
GROUND. THIS KEEPS THE HEAT HEADLINES GOING AS-IS WITH WARNING
CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HEAT INDICES PEAK
NEAR/AROUND 110 TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE AND THE WATCH GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THOUGH A
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE IN AROUND TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST NEAR-
CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DAMP BOUNDARY
LAYER UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
MAIN CHALLENGE IS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BR. SURFACE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO RISE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND
UNDER MODEST CLOUD. CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THOUGH A
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET BRINGS SOME MIXING. HAVE GONE ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AT TOP AND FOE GIVEN LATEST OB TRENDS. CUMULUS MAY
FORM AROUND HIGH MVFR LEVELS SOON AFTER SUNRISE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT THE MOST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
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