933
FXUS63 KTOP 091722
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES LIKELY (80% CHANCE) CLIMB INTO THE 104-109 DEGREE RANGE.
- STILL HOT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT POTENTIAL FOR THICK HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LIMIT HEAT TO SOME DEGREE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. EXACT RAIN COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
BROAD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING.
BETWEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTH AND BELOW
AVERAGE HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTH, THE CORE OF THE JET TO OUR NORTH IS ON
THE STRONGER SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST. SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THE JET CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE OF THESE WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIGHT NOW.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 600 MB HAS ALLOWED SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM MANHATTAN TO MARYSVILLE.
THESE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. IMPACTS
WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE WEAK AND HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION, THOUGH WITH LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME BRIEF STRONG GUSTS WITH ANY DECAYING STORM. PERSISTENT
WAA INTO THE AFTERNOON HINTS THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT
LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, BUT DO THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
AT SOME POINT. ONCE THIS DOES OCCUR, A BREEZY BUT HOT AND HUMID DAY
IS IN STORE. DEEPER MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S
TOWARDS CENTRAL KS, WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BUT DEWPOINTS HIGHER. AS A RESULT, HAVE GONE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
ALL BUT A FEW COUNTIES NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER, AS HEAT INDICES IN
MOST SPOTS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 100S.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC "DIRTY RIDGE" PATTERN.
SEVERAL MORE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN A DEEP LAYER OF
SATURATION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE 600 MB, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. DRY, INVERTED V PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT
BELOW THIS LAYER. THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES), SO THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE HELD IN CHECK WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
THICKEST. IN SIMILAR PAST SETUPS, GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES, AND IS TYPICALLY ON THE WARM END OF
WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS. SO HAVE HEDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS/HEAT INDICES MONDAY, AND EVEN THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE IF HIGH CLOUDS STAY THICK ALL AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL FOR
PERSISTENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWER/STORMS
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO A LESSER EXTENT. IF SKIES STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR THEN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 WOULD BE PROBABLE. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED CLOUDS SUGGESTS THE HEAT COULD BE REDUCED SLIGHTLY -
THOUGH STILL RATHER WARM.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, PUSHING A FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS. SOME VARIATION REMAINS IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL GET BEFORE IT STALLS OUT, WITH THE GFS TAKING IT INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, THE ECMWF STALLING IT OUT AROUND I-70, AND MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN. EXACT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE IT DOES END UP. BUT REGARDLESS,
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
80S NORTH OF THE FRONT TO STILL IN THE 90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS IS LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH 40+ KNOTS AT AROUND 2,000 FT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT/TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAF.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-
KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...JONES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page