270
FXUS63 KTOP 092309
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES LIKELY (80% CHANCE) CLIMB INTO THE 104-109 DEGREE RANGE.
- STILL HOT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT POTENTIAL FOR THICK HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LIMIT HEAT TO SOME DEGREE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXACT RAIN COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
AREA ALONG A THETA‑E AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ANY ACTIVITY BRUSHES FAR
NORTHEAST KANSAS AS IT MOVES EAST‑SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW. A
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GENERALLY WEAK LARGE‑SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH A
STRENGTHENING LOW‑LEVEL JET AND STEEP MID‑LEVEL LAPSE RATES TONIGHT
MAY ALLOW ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IF PARCELS CAN OVERCOME
LINGERING CIN. GIVEN MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE STRONG, POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS CONSTRAINED BY THE EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE
AND CAPPING.
THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO HEAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARD 30
°C BENEATH AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT, SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TOMORROW’S HEAT MAY BE
MILDLY MITIGATED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT GENERALLY, HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100–105 DEGREE RANGE CONTINUE TO LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NEARBY.
BY MIDWEEK, GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS A
FRONTAL ZONE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND A FURTHER SOUTH FRONTAL ZONE, SOMEWHAT COOLER
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL SITES WITH THE MAIN HAZARD
AS OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SOME DECAYING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS APPROACH KMHK THIS EVENING, BUT
THESE SHOULD FALL APART THROUGH THE EVENING SO OPTED TO NOT ADD ANY
MENTION INTO TAFS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS
WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-
KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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