784
FXUS63 KTOP 101723
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE PERSISTENT HIGH
CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND OR A
BIT ABOVE 100.
- LATE WEEK TRENDING A BIT HOTTER, WITH COLD FRONT NOT MOVING QUITE
AS FAR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES STILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SEASONABLY FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS THIS MONDAY MORNING, WITH BROAD RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD PLUME OF UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE POINTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN ONGOING WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME, MOSTLY TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER. EXPECTING LESS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT THERE SHOULD STILL
BE THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. IF A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR, TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL QUICKLY WARM UP TOWARDS THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. BUT AT THIS POINT THINK THE PERVASIVE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-70. STILL HOT NONETHELESS, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR/ABOVE 100, BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORY AS A RESULT.
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A
CONTINUATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, RESULTING IN MORE
PERIODS OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE COULD BE. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NEARBY (700 MB TEMPS ~15C), HEAT WILL
STAY IN PLACE. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100. GIVEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM - NEAR 80.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING HOTTER.
MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LESS
AMPLIFIED, RESULTING IN THE COLD FRONT NOT BEING ABLE TO MAKE ITS
WAY AS FAR SOUTH OVER EASTERN KS. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO NOW IS FOR IT
TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STAYING
STATIONARY OR ONLY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY WEEK HEAT TO CONTINUE ANOTHER
EXTRA DAY OR TWO, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. WHEREVER IT DOES END UP,
WE'LL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, EXCEPT AT KFOE WHERE GUSTS WILL BE MORE
CONSISTENT OVERNIGHT. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS, BUT DIRECTION IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVORS LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER LLWS. GUSTS RETURN LATE IN
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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