631
FXUS63 KTOP 102337
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- STILL TRENDING A BIT HOTTER LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE
FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE AREA. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW HAS KEPT A
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TODAY, LIMITING MIXING
AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. HEAT
INDICES HAVE STILL REACHED THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
AROUND 80 DEGREES.
EXPECTING A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT-MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GIVING WAY TO HOT AND
HUMID AFTERNOONS. CLOUD COVER COULD BE THICK AT TIMES AND LIMIT THE
OVERALL MIXING/HEATING, BUT HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE MID 90S TO LOW
100S. EVEN WITH MIXING LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100-108 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
THEREFORE, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH IF CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE LESS OF A FACTOR IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO NORTHERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE. AGAIN, CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM MORNING SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES, BUT ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF STORMS DEVELOP (CURRENTLY <10% CHANCE), THEY
WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BACK HALF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY HOLDS ACROSS
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS; GUIDANCE VARIES ON EXACT POSITION, BUT HIGHLIGHT
FAR NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA. WITH THE
FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO 100-105 DEGREE
HEAT INDICES FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. GUSTS HAVE BEEN
LESS FREQUENT AT TOP/FOE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULDN'T EXPECT THAT
TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO OPTED TO REMOVE GUSTS
FROM FOE ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ABOVE 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STILL THINKING SFC WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH AT ALL SITES
TO PRECLUDE LLWS EVEN WITH A 40 KT JET OVERHEAD TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WITH GRADUAL CHANGE FAVORING MORE OF
A TURBULENCE SETUP. OTHERWISE, GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN FROM THE SSW MID/LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AUGUST 11
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 82 (1913) 80
CONCORDIA 77 (2021) 80
AUGUST 12
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1913) 79
CONCORDIA 80 (1943) 77
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...PICHA
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN
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