051
FXUS63 KTOP 120513
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
CONCORDIA TO HOLTON LINE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, LEADING TO ALMOST A CARBON-COPY OF YESTERDAY'S WEATHER.
MORNING SHOWERS HAVE WANED AND CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP. DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S,
BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S. THE NET RESULT IS WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO NORTHERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH. WHILE
CLOUD DEBRIS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
KANSAS COULD KEEP CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 102-105 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW, LEADING TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HOLDING FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HEAT INDICES OF 103-110, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CONCORDIA TO
HOLTON LINE. FAR NORTHERN KANSAS IS PROGGED TO SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT SPEED OF THE
FRONT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EVOLVES INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ. HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
NEBRASKA, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES INTO
FAR NORTHERN KANSAS AND PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS;
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA AS THE MOST LIKELY
AREA TO BE IMPACTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES IMPACT THE AREA, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL,
ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF THIS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO SLOW AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO STAY GENERALLY MIXED ENOUGH THAT
WE'LL SEE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE INSTEAD OF LLWS, THOUGH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS MORE AKIN TO LLWS COULD OCCUR. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL
FOR MORNING STORMS OVER NEBRASKA TO PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE TERMINALS EARLY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING WINDS AROUND 10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. STILL NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
OCCUR, BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT AT THIS POINT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AUGUST 11
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 82 (1913) 78
CONCORDIA 77 (2021) 80
AUGUST 12
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1913) 79
CONCORDIA 80 (1943) 78
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...REESE
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/REESE
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