423
FXUS63 KTOP 130515
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1215 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 110 COMMON THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
- SMALL RISKS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FRIDAY EVENING, AND SATURDAY EVENING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOME SUNDAY, AND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS BEHIND A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN MODEST HIGH-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER EAST TO LIGHT
SURFACE FLOW. THIS PATTERN CHANGES SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND HAVE KEPT THE BULK OF TONIGHT
DRY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TO AT LEAST CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THIS
AREA. CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CIN PER SEVERAL CAMS.
CAPE AND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
MAINLY A WIND RISK. AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING BUT BETTER CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY IN THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN MODEST UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE WEEKEND WITH GREATER COVERAGE LIKELY IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT, BUT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
EVENING. A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COULD
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES, TODAY'S OUTFLOW AND
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY ON AVERAGE,
BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY
LOWER ON AVERAGE. NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY IF THE PRECIP LINGERS BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
CANCEL IT. FOR THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD BE SOME OF THE WARMEST
OF THE RECENT STRETCH IN DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT EVEN USING SOME
OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT FORECASTS THAT HAVE VERIFIED BETTER RECENTLY,
NORTHERN AREAS STRUGGLE TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. CONCERNING HEAT
COULD LAST INTO SATURDAY BUT IF THE DEWPOINT TRENDS HOLD AND THE
FRONT OR OUTFLOW IS A BIT FASTER, THIS MAY NOT PAN OUT. OVERALL,
HAVE LEFT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY AS-IS AND LET
LATER SHIFTS MONITOR TRENDS. NOTICABLY-COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LLWS REMAINS ON TRACK TO
DEVELOP FROM 08-09Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST UP TO 45 KTS. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING AT KMHK AS
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF KMHK TOWARDS 23Z. COVERAGE AND
LOCATION OF STORMS ARE UNCERTAIN SO WILL NOT MENTION IMPACTS IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AUGUST 12
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 81 (1913) 80
CONCORDIA 80 (1943) 78
AUGUST 13
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 85 (1936) 78
CONCORDIA 83 (1936) 78
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...POAGE/REESE
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