022
FXUS63 KTOP 141657
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1157 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THEN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HWY 36 CORRIDOR.
- AFTER STORMS END THIS MORNING, CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORMS RETURN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND
DURING THESE TIME FRAMES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM A
BIT TOWARDS MID-WEEK, BUT NOT NEARLY AS HOT AS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO FESTER FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING, THANKS TO A LLJ
SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORMS. SINCE THEY HAVE PERSISTED IN
THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS WELL
WORKED OVER AT THIS POINT, SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH
THESE. FORTUNATELY, RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN SLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE TIME BEING. AS THE NOSE OF THE LLJ PUSHES
NORTH, THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE STORMS NORTH INTO THE PREDAWN
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ON THE LARGER SCALE, SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT HANGING AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY. COUNTIES ALONG THE HWY
36 CORRIDOR LOOK TO HAVE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE BOUNDARY
JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS HOT AS
THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH, THOSE NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE A LOWER PROBABILITY OF REACHING CRITERIA TO CONTINUE HEAT
HEADLINES. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS COMBINE TO BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE
105-110 DEGREE RANGE. THE FRONT DOESN'T APPEAR TO MAKE MEANINGFUL
PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY, SO OPTED TO EXTEND THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THAT DAY.
REGARDING STORM CHANCES, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE ISN'T ALL THAT HIGH FOR TONIGHT IN PARTICULAR, AS CAM
GUIDANCE HASN'T BEEN CONSISTENT EITHER BETWEEN MODELS OR FROM RUN TO
RUN. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY LOOKS BETTER, BUT WITH
VARYING IDEAS ON PLACEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. IN ANY CASE, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS.
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FINALLY ARRIVES SUNDAY AS THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND THE RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS AND PLACES
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SEE
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 90S -- MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNING, BUT ENSEMBLES ALSO
SHOW WIDENING RANGES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN
WITH ANOTHER FRONT IN THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS TEND TO KEEP IT NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL KEEP A VFR FORECAST
GOING. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHRA COVERAGE BEING ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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