089
FXUS63 KTOP 150908
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
408 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE HWY
36 CORRIDOR UNTIL THIS EVENING.
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCES (50-70%) COME OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 80S.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK, MAINLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS KS WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY HOLDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA. AT THE UPPER LEVELS,
WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DOMINATING THE
DEEP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER AND HELPED
STEER THE STORMS THAT BEGAN LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THE MO/IA/IL
VICINITY. A COUPLE OF OTHER BATCHES OF STORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH WESTERN KS AND NE, AND A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX IS
NOTED IN THAT AREA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS LEFT OVER FROM THAT ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KS THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MID-DAY. HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
PRECIP AND CLOUD DEBRIS ENDS UP AS A RESULT OF THIS LEADS TO SOME
QUESTIONS ON HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TODAY,
PARTICULARLY IN COUNTIES ALONG THE KS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWARD. IF
THE SFC BOUNDARY HANGS NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION, CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
SOON ENOUGH, AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ENOUGH, THEN MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAT UP AND SEE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER, IF THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND/OR CLOUD COVER LINGERS
LONGER, THEN IT'S POSSIBLE EVEN LOCATIONS ALONG I-70 COULD STRUGGLE
TO REACH HEAT INDICES OF 105. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING THERE AS IT STANDS NOW. GIVEN THAT
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WITH A NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT, HAVE GONE WITH
MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES AND LEFT THE
WARNING AS IS FOR NOW.
REGARDING STORM CHANCES TONIGHT, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES
TO WATCH. ONE IS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH FORCING LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED. STILL, IF SOMETHING CAN GET GOING, INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS
TO COME FROM ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION THAT BEGINS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT
(PROBABLY AFTER 1-2AM). IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG THESE STORMS
WOULD STILL BE BY THE TIME THEY REACH THIS AREA, BUT MUCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG AND MODEST BULK SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH BY THEN AS WELL. THIS LEAVES US WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE IN THE 80S, PERHAPS A FEW LOW 90S IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY, DEW POINTS WON'T BE MUCH BETTER AS
THEY ARE STUCK IN THE 70S, BUT THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MAKE IT MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR AS ALL AREAS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FOR THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY END OF NEXT WEEK, WE TRANSITION TO
QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WARM UP SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE BULK OF THE HEAT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY RESULT IN GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THOSE WAVES SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH STORMS NOW MOVING EAST AND NORTH OF
TERMINALS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS ALSO WELL NORTH OF TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND TURNS WINDS BACK
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A STRAY SHOWER MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING
FROM ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY LEFT FROM WESTERN KS, THOUGH BETTER STORM
CHANCES COME LATE THIS PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
TS MENTION FOR NOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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