752
FXUS63 KTOP 302306
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
606 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, EXCEPT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED.
- STAYING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, MAINLY TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA, WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING TO
OUR SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING JUST
NORTHWEST OF REPUBLIC COUNTY, KEEPING A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THERE, BUT
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AND WINDY. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO YESTERDAY'S VALUES, AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.
THIS SHOULD TAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND OR ABOVE 100 WITH ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO OF HEATING. AS MOST PLACES SAW HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 102
TO 105 RANGE YESTERDAY, MORE CONFIDENT THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
HEAT INDICES AROUND OR ABOVE 105 TODAY. SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER WHERE CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST BUT
STAYS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN KS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND OR ABOVE 100 EACH DAY. SO MAY AN EXTENSION OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY, PARTICULARLY IF DEWPOINTS CAN CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES BY MID-WEEK. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD, SLIGHTLY IMPROVING THE FEEL OF
THE AIR BUT ALSO NOT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS MUCH
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S
EACH DAY.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, THE ONLY THING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL
BE SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL KS.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ
RESTRENGTHENS, A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THESE MAY MOVE INTO REPUBLIC
COUNTY AND NEARBY AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OFF A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS IT MAY MOVE BACK CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MORE ISOLATED AM CONVECTION. REGARDLESS,
EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK TO STAY VERY
LIGHT, AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS
EVENING, BUT HOLDING AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO AROUND 40KTS, BUT THINK SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KTS
AND A GRADUALLY DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH HEIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER LLWS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
RECORD FORECAST
AUGUST 31 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1912 AND 1947 79
CONCORDIA 81, SET IN 1947 77
SEPTEMBER 1 TOPEKA 81, SET IN 2011 78
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1913 77
SEPTEMBER 2 TOPEKA 80, SET IN 2011 79
CONCORDIA 79, SET IN 1929 78
SEPTEMBER 3 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1939 78
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1947 78
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...POAGE/REESE
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