473
FXUS63 KTOP 010509
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1209 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-A HOT A DRY PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AND LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK, LIKELY BEYOND.
-WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORDS AT TIMES -
MAINLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON CONSISTS OF A LARGE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST, A COMPACT
LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH AXIS OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA THAT IS SET TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX EARLY THIS
WEEK. AT THE SFC, THERE REMAINS AN INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN KS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY ARE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM TODAY.
THE SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A LLJ DEVELOPS,
KEEPING ANY RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA. A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, ALLOWING
FOR SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND VERY WARM 925-850MB TEMPS TO KEEP
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN PLACE HEADING INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FOR COMPARISON, AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. DEW POINTS EACH
AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WHICH WILL CAUSE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO STAY IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. HAVE OPTED
TO NOT CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
MOST AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK. THAT SAID, HOWEVER, THOSE SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS OF THE HEAT AND TAKE PROPER STEPS TO
AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES THAT CAN SET IN QUICKLY.
LONG RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS HOT AND DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THE NBM SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASES SLIGHTLY TOWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THE GOING FORECAST TRIES TO LOWER TEMPS AS A POTENTIAL
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AM THINKING THAT FRONT MIGHT GET
WASHED OUT BEFORE IT CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE AND THAT WE WILL SEE THE
TEMPS TREND BACK TOWARD TRIPLE DIGITS AS THAT TIMEFRAME NEARS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SSW AS
MIXING BEGINS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IMPACTS FROM THE LLJ WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR LLWS BUT STILL A STEADY INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH FL020.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
RECORD FORECAST
AUGUST 31 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1912 AND 1947 77
CONCORDIA 81, SET IN 1947 75
SEPTEMBER 1 TOPEKA 81, SET IN 2011 76
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1913 76
SEPTEMBER 2 TOPEKA 80, SET IN 2011 78
CONCORDIA 79, SET IN 1929 77
SEPTEMBER 3 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1939 78
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1947 78
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...DRAKE
CLIMATE...POAGE/REESE
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