112
FXUS63 KTOP 020454
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
THOUGH HEADLINES BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME MAY STILL NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.
- WARM LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S KEEP RECORD WARM MINIMUMS IN
PLAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
PERHAPS LOOKING SLIGHTLY LESS HOT BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, WHILE AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. A MORE SUBTLE
PERTURBATION IS NOTED OFF THE HIGH PLAINS, LEADING TO A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN NE/IA. TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS NOTED OFF THE COAST
OF TX/LA. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PLUS THE AMPLE SUNSHINE UNDER THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE IS LEADING TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S UP TO 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SHOULD DO FAIRLY WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WE LOOK TO SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM COMES FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS THAT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS SUCH, FELT THAT THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF
DEW POINTS WOULD BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN THE DRIER SOLUTIONS
PRESENTED IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS WOULD PUSH US CLOSER TO HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105. CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THAT CRITERIA IS HIGHEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, AND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY. STILL
OPTED TO JOIN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEIGHBORS IN A HEAT ADVISORY
STARTING WEDNESDAY GIVEN IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND RISK FOR
HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES EVEN WITH BORDERLINE CONDITIONS.
BEYOND FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH
ITS CENTER RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. LONG-RANGE MODELS START TO SHOW SOME DIVERGING IN THE
SOLUTIONS, RESULTING IN SOME VARIATION IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED. WITH THAT IN MIND, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOW A
SMALL RANGE OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND A NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES BEYOND FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAT TO CONTINUE. THE RANGE WIDENS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT LATER THIS MORNING, BUT
KEEP IT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS NEAR THE STATE LINE. SO WILL KEEP A
VFR FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
RECORD FORECAST
SEPTEMBER 2 TOPEKA 80, SET IN 2011 77
CONCORDIA 79, SET IN 1929 78
SEPTEMBER 3 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1939 78
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1947 79
SEPTEMBER 4 TOPEKA 78, SET IN 2014 76
CONCORDIA 79, SET IN 1954 76
SEPTEMBER 5 TOPEKA 76, SET IN 1983 75
CONCORDIA 78, SET IN 1899 76
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...PICHA/POAGE
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