185
FXUS63 KTOP 020712
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
212 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAD SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
PER THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTED
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WAS STILL
INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA EVEN WITH A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEB AND INTO NORTHERN IA.
OVERALL THERE ISN'T A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR
HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAP AND NAM
SHOW SOME SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN AREA. FOR NOW MOST MODELS
FAIL TO GENERATE ANY QPF THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR HAS ISOLATED
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING. SO HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING
DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECIP FROM THE MODELS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A POP TO THURSDAY TO SEE IS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE
LIFT. ASIDE FROM THAT THERE ISN'T MUCH SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED FORCING
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AS THE CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NBM CONTINUES TO UNDER PERFORM WITH
HIGH TEMPS SO HAVE LEANED MORE ON ADIABATIC MIXING OF 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS FROM THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP HIGHS AROUND 101
TODAY. DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT
AGAIN TODAY SO HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT MUCH HOTTER
THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP. HOWEVER MODELS PROG PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW BY LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BETTER GULF
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY. SO WHILE MIXING
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGHER LEVELS
OF HUMIDITY MAY ACTUALLY CAUSE THE HEAT INDEX TO INCREASE. DON'T
HAVE ANY ISSUES WITH KEEPING THE HEAT ADVISORY AND IF THERE ARE NO
BIG CHANGES IN THE LATER MODEL RUNS, IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO EXTEND IT
BEYOND FRIDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH MORE MEMBERS OF THE GFS WANTING TO FLATTEN
OUT THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF MEMBERS TRY TO
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE. SO THERE IS LOWER PREDICTABILITY BY THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. IN EITHER CASE THE PROSPECT FOR A
STRONG PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY AND THE NBM/WPC
FORECAST OF KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S NEXT WEEK LOOKS
REASONABLE. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NEB STATE LINE EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY FROM THE INCREASING
SPREAD IN POTENTIAL OUTCOME AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES FLATTENING THE
RIDGE. I DON'T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE
CONSISTENT SIGN OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BECOMES APPARENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT LATER THIS MORNING, BUT
KEEP IT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS NEAR THE STATE LINE. SO WILL KEEP A
VFR FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
RECORD FORECAST
SEPTEMBER 3 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1939 77
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1947 79
SEPTEMBER 4 TOPEKA 78, SET IN 2014 76
CONCORDIA 79, SET IN 1954 79
SEPTEMBER 5 TOPEKA 76, SET IN 1983 77
CONCORDIA 78, SET IN 1899 78
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...POAGE
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