262
FXUS63 KTOP 022327
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE. HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 100 DEGREES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
-A BIT OF RELIEF LOOKS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN HASN'T CHANGED MUCH WITH H5 ANALYSIS SHOWING A
LARGE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS,
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD OVER EASTERN TX. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A SIMILAR SET UP WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EAST, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN KS AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN BETWEEN. THIS HOT PATTERN WILL LIKELY HAVE
US EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE HIGHS KEEP US A LOT CLOSER TO DAILY RECORDS THAN AVERAGE HIGHS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 80S AND SLOWLY DROPPING WITH TIME.
THUS, HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS HEAT WAVE AND THE FACT THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES DON'T OFFER MUCH RELIEF. AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY GET
EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HAVE KEPT POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT FOR NOW GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, SUPPORTED BY
WEAK FORCING A LACK OF SATURATION IN THE COLUMN. INSTEAD, HEAT WILL
CONTINUE AND BE REINFORCED AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND HOLDS FIRM INTO NEXT WEEK. A
BIT OF RELIEF MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE WEEK. THE EC IS MORE SET ON THIS SOLUTION
THAN THE GFS CURRENTLY, EVEN BRINGING SOME DECENT QPF WITH THE FRONT.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW MODELS TREND IN THE LONG RANGE, BUT FOR
NOW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN DRY AND VERY HOT WEATHER FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS (SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER AT NIGHT) WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY BRIEF
SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF KMHK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
RECORD FORECAST
SEPTEMBER 3 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1939 77
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1947 79
SEPTEMBER 4 TOPEKA 78, SET IN 2014 76
CONCORDIA 79, SET IN 1954 79
SEPTEMBER 5 TOPEKA 76, SET IN 1983 77
CONCORDIA 78, SET IN 1899 78
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...REESE
CLIMATE...POAGE
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