158
FXUS63 KTOP 050504
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. PEAK HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON ARE AROUND
105 DEGREES, LEADING TO THE INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- LOW PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THE POTENT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, PUSHING WEST AND NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT
THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS MORNING LOWS ARE GENERALLY MILD IN
THE LOW 70S. DURING THE DAYTIME, STRONG WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AID GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH, INCREASING TO OVER 20 MPH
SUSTAINED BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY. THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES MADE THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. GLIMPSES OF HEAT RELIEF ARE SEEN ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MO, IMPACTING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
AND EASTERN KANSAS IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER, SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
AND/OR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS (LESS THAN 20%). OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD SUPPRESS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FURTHER REGARDING THE
TRACK OF A UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN TURN, THIS WOULD SHIFT A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, RETURNING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOWEVER HOLD THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH,
TRANSLATED BY OVERALL NBM PROBABILITIES OF QPF GREATER THAN 0.01
INCHES BEING AROUND 20% OR LESS. FOR THE TIME BEING, WILL MAINTAIN
THE LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A LESS
CERTAIN TEMP FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S FOR HIGHS. THERE PERSISTS A 10
DEGREE SPREAD FROM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES FOR HIGH TEMPS WED.-FRI.
AND WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 00Z, BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
RECORD FORECAST
SEPTEMBER 5 TOPEKA 76, SET IN 1925 & 1983 73
CONCORDIA 78, SET IN 1899 76
SEPTEMBER 6 TOPEKA 78, SET IN 1970 74
CONCORDIA 81, SET IN 1939 75
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...22/POAGE
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