596
FXUS63 KTOP 201739
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1239 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- EXPECT FALL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
A FAIRLY ACTIVE EVENING OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS HAVING SLID EAST
INTO NORTHWEST MO. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS HAVE TRACKED INTO CENTRAL KS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN HOW WORKED-OVER THE
ENVIRONMENT IS, EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE SUB-SEVERE,
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE 850MB BOUNDARY THAT IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RECENT RADAR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS AS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE SEVERE,
BUT A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AS
THE MAIN CONCERN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN COMPARISON TO THE
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA LIMITING AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AREA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS FAR
EAST-CENTRAL KS, CLOSEST TO THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. THAT SAID,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SOUTHWARD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
REGIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. MEANWHILE, BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS
EAST INTO THE REGION, RETURNING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION WILL
MAINTAIN THE WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD BY
THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM PERTURBATION ENTERS THE REGION. LOW
CHANCE POPS ALSO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (20-50%) GIVEN THE
VARIANCES ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION
COMING OFF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO 1000-1500 FEET AND MAY DROP DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 8Z SUN THROUGH 15Z SUN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 6Z SUN.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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