771
FXUS63 KTOP 210514
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1214 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
- EXPECT FALL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WY AND
CO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS IL. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTH TX. A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WEST OF CA.
THE 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY, THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK, EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PNHDL INTO NORTHEAST NM. TEMPERATURES AT NOON WERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S NORTH WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS WY INTO NORTHERN CO WILL SHIFT EAST. THE
STRONGER ASCENT WILL BE ACROSS NE AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS, BUT
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ASCENT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS BUT THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A FEW RAINSHOWERS
TO MOVE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35. MOST CAMS DO NOT
SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. LATE TONIGHT A COMPLEX OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WILL MOVE EAST BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY, SO AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT GET MUCH
WARMER THEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S NORTH AND 70S SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOWER
TO MID 70S SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
EASTERN TX INTO OK THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY. I CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THIS PERIOD, SINCE A FEW MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MAY OVER THE H5 RIDGE AXIS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING AN H5 TROUGH
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. . A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE OF KS. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE A COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN H5 PERTURBATION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT
WILL BE MORE OF A PACIFIC FRONT, SO IT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY WITH MORE INSOLATION. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH MID 70S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
80S SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
TAFS WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND MVFR AND IFR CIGS FOR MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TOWARDS MVFR STATUS. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO TRY TO MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING AT KTOP, BUT
SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 4 MILES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, DEEPER
MIXING OUT TOWARDS KMHK SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN A PERIOD OF VFR
STRATUS TOWARDS THE TERMINAL SO ADDED MENTION OF THAT SCENARIO.
FURTHER EAST AT KTOP AND KFOE, HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
AROUND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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