471
FXUS63 KTOP 211721
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A CLOUDY BUT MUCH COOLER START TO THE WEEK IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WITH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TODAY AND TUESDAY'S CONDITIONS WILL
LARGELY BE INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONTINUOUS
CAA FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PLEASANT AND WELL BELOW-AVERAGE, TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S.
A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE COMES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF KANSAS AND RETURNS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTH. DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD PROMOTE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE
AS VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
NORTH INTO KANSAS. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS SO EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN THERE. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE COMPRESS AND GET SHUNTED BACK
TOWARDS THE GULF AS TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
USHER IN BETTER PVA ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KANSAS AND IN TURN, RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES. MULTIPLE WAVES PASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE WEEKEND KEEPS SCATTERED CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK TOWARDS AVERAGES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LIMITING STRATUS IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
MODERATE INVERSION. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT A RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LOWER SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. RISING CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN LATE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...POAGE
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