104
FXUS63 KTOP 211857
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
157 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND MAINLY CLOUDY INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER BENIGN AND MUCH MORE FALL LIKE THAN
RECENT WEEKS. LOW STRATUS WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH A MODERATE
INVERSION OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE 12Z SOUNDING. CONDITIONS
ONLY SLOWLY CHANGE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SO STRATUS RETURNING AND
BUILDING DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS PER MOST HI-RES
MODELS. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLOW CLEARING AGAIN FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE RETURNS WEDNESDAY FOR
SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXING AND LESS STRATUS CONCERN AS UPPER HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE UNDER A BUILDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE.
MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.7 INCHES THOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT STRONG. MODERATE
NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE IN THIS PATTERN WITH
LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY HEAVY AMOUNTS OR SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SEVERE CONVECTION. A NORTHERN STATES WAVE SHOULD PUSH THE GREATER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE
SPECIFICS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT SOME 80S FOR HIGHS SEEM LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LIMITING STRATUS IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
MODERATE INVERSION. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT A RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LOWER SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. RISING CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN LATE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
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