793
FXUS63 KTOP 220825
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-70%) RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAXIMIZE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY (50-80%)
BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER AIR RETURNS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS A CUTOFF LOW MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS HAS ALLOWED STRONG SURFACE RIDGING TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN US AND USHERED IN BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH IT. STRATUS CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING TODAY THAT SHOULD
AGAIN HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN TO UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXES BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF KANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY, RETURNING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. SUBTLE WAA AND DRIER
AIR WITH THIS CHANGE SHOULD ACT TO CLEAR SKIES A BIT EARLIER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER, TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S - A PLEASANT DAY ALL AROUND!
THE FIRST WAVE OF SEVERAL END OF THE WEEK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS SO
THAT IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO SEE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY PM INTO THURSDAY AM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
SHUNT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH PVA
FURTHER EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A DECENT STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE
IN THE 850MB LAYER WILL REMAIN OPEN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. PWATS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HOVER AROUND 1.75",
CONFIRMING THE OVERALL QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
KANSAS. WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, POPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH EACH DAY, MAXING OUT IN THE
50-70% RANGE EACH DAY. A MORE STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
PM THAT SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE QUICKLY
MOVES THIS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY, USHERING IN DRIER WEATHER AND
A COMPACT MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COULD RETURN AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE COMPACT RIDGE APPEARS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW UNDER THIS UPPER-PATTERN SHOULD PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THANKFULLY, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE MOVES ANOTHER TROUGH
IN FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK THAT SHOULD RETURN COOLER WEATHER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF WITH
DRIZZLE REDUCING VIS A BIT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. CIGS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING MVFR AND THEN SCATTERING
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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