223
FXUS63 KTOP 231727
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT TODAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE MAIN SWATH MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL ACT TO LARGELY INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE COMING DAYS. THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TO SHIFT SURFACE
WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. DRY AIR
ADVECTION UNDER THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 70S BY PEAK HEATING HOURS.
BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SHORTWAVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL KS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCES DECREASING TOWARDS EASTERN KANSAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID-
LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SHUNTS THE SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE GULF.
POPS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH RANGE BETWEEN 40-
75% FROM TOPEKA TO CONCORDIA RESPECTIVELY. AREAS FURTHER EAST,
GENERALLY AROUND THE I-335 CORRIDOR HAVE AROUND A 20-30% PROBABILITY
OF SEEING 1 INCH OF RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH MID-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. A
BRIEF WARM-UP CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THIS RIDGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUILD BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS SHOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DECENT AGREEMENT IN A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT THAT SEEMS LATE BASED ON SATELLITE SHOWING THE
STRATUS SCATTERING OUT. KEPT MVFR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO THIS
PERIOD WITH VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS STAY UNDER 10 KTS FROM THE ESE WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF INCOMING
RAIN CHANCES. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...PICHA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page