690
FXUS63 KTOP 241103
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
603 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS AREAS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SLOWLY SPREADING INTO EASTERN
KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
RIDGING BUILDS IN BRINGING DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- MORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALL THE WAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS IS MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS LEAD TO MANY FLOODING EVENTS IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY RIDE OVER THE SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. CONTINUOUS PVA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND THEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS WILL GIVE WAY TO ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS) CHANCES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THROUGH TODAY, MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
BEST RAIN CHANCES THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH,
MAINLY STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN US TOWARDS THE GULF. SCATTERED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. WITH PWATS FRIDAY EVENING
RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-2", HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SEE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD USHER
IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING SLIGHTLY, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DECENT AGREEMENT IN A STOUT LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF THE PNW BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
USHER IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW IT EVOLVES AND
PROPAGATES THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL US FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
SO TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN HIGH AND POPS REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KMHK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR STRATUS MOVING INTO ALL LOCATIONS. ADDED
MENTION OF VCSH AT KTOP AND KFOE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST. BY LATE THIS EVENING, HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER MOVING INTO THE KMHK TERMINAL, SO ADDED MENTION OF THIS
SCENARIO. CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY VFR, BUT COULD DROP INTO MVFR IN
STRONGER SHOWERS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page