647
FXUS63 KTOP 251059
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
559 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS SATURDAY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEK. WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN MID-WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
ACTING AS SOMEWHAT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. THIS HAS HELPED DEVELOP TWO
CUT-OFF UPPER LOWS, ONE STRONGER LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND A
WEAKER ONE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE LATTER LOW WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS IT STEADILY LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY, TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE IN THE
PROCESS. WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW, POCKETS
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
WEAK STORMS. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE,
BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING ONE
WAVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY A LULL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S, THOUGH
SOME SPOTS TOWARDS CENTRAL KS COULD APPROACH 80 IF THE CLOUDS CAN
THIN.
AS THE MAIN WAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHEST TOWARDS
CENTRAL KS CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER FORCING. INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEAK, BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ANY PERSISTENT AREAS OF CONVECTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED 1-2" RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING
DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE
UPPER WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
CLEARING, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S. WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EVENING OR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES, AND POSSIBLE DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER INSTABILITY
TO THE WEST. BUT WITH 25-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL.
STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A COUPLE OF WARMER AND DRIER DAYS. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S, PARTICULARLY IF WINDS CAN TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY NIGHT'S WEAK FRONT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE APPROACHING THE PLAINS
MID-WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUCH AN UPPER LOW 5 DAYS OUT, THERE IS
PLENTY OF SPREAD IN EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS VERY CONFIDENT IN A DEEP SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW, POTENTIALLY DIRECTLY TIED TO
RECURVING HURRICANE POLO. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING 2", AROUND RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COUPLED
WITH THE POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, WE'LL HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR HEAVY RAINS AND PERHAPS SOME FLOODING MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY TODAY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
SEVERAL DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR AN
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER, TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MORNING.
AFTER A PM LULL, MORE SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ANY MVFR CEILINGS ARE TRENDING
FARTHER WEST, AWAY FROM KMHK, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF LOWER
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. WINDS STAY GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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