127
FXUS63 KTOP 260849
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY - THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING RISK.
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST. HIGHS STAY NEAR AVERAGE, LOWS ABOVE
AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT NOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BROADER SCALE WAVE, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE POCKETS
OF ASCENT, ASSOCIATED WITH BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE
OF THESE ROUNDS OF WEAK CONVECTION IS JUST EXITING THE AREA, WHILE
ANOTHER IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. SO
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE'LL SEE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AROUND, LIMITING
INSTABILITY. SO POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES
TO DECREASE, AND THE PRIOR SPC MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN TRIMMED WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STILL LOOK QUIETER AS UPPER RIDGING SETS UP OVER
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THOUGH, AS GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING SOME MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE
NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL, GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOW LOOKS
TO INTERACT WITH AND THEN PICK UP A RECURVING HURRICANE POLO,
ABSORBING A LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT IS
STILL APPROACHING 2" BY TUESDAY NIGHT, NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW,
AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED REMNANTS OF POLO. THIS WILL BE THE KEY
FACTOR IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST PROLONGED RAIN SETS UP. LREF 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILES ARE ROUGHLY 2-3" THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
FOR THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT ANY ONE POINT. SPREAD OUT
OVER SEVERAL DAYS, THESE VALUES WOULD BE LESS IMPACTFUL. LOOKING AT
THE LREF 90TH PERCENTILE THOUGH, VALUES OF 5-7" CORRESPOND WELL TO
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS A REASONABLE WORST CASE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
POCKETS. THESE POCKETS, WITH VERY ISOLATED EVEN HIGHER VALUES, WOULD
BE MORE CONCERNING FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. PINPOINTING 4-6 DAYS OUT
WHERE THESE HIGHER VALUES WILL BE IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY, SO FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH LARGER SCALE TRENDS WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SETUP. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION, BUT IN
GENERAL THE CLOUDY AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES LOW. EXPECTING COOL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING KTOP/KFOE. BEHIND THIS ROUND, EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD STAY PREDOMINANTLY VFR, THOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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