937
FXUS63 KTOP 280529
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1229 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND MONDAY WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (10-20%)
FOR A POP-UP SHOWER.
- ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2.5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING.
- SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TURNING COOLER BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THREE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES THIS
AFTERNOON: A NOR'EASTER ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST US,
HURRICANE POLO OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN US. THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE FEATURES WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY STILL MEANDERING AROUND
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD FAVORS DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK ASCENT COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR A STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY; SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS REACH THE 70S TO NEAR 80S DEGREES TODAY AND
MONDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, PICKING
UP REMNANTS OF POLO AS IT DOES SO. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONGER ASCENT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. STILL SEEING A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
FARTHER NORTHWEST TREND WITH THE FIRST WAVE, PUSHING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD STILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO
FROM THIS FIRST ROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH A SLOWER
TREND COULD LIMIT RAINFALL WITH THIS ROUND. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
THIS ROUND AND LEAD TO THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. QPF
FROM ENSEMBLES HAS DECREASED TO SOME DEGREE; ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOW
1.5-2.25". THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN IS STILL 70-90%
WITH A WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF 4-5" STILL POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FLOODING COMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION EXISTS THE AREA, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
A SMALL AREA OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING TOWARDS
KTOP AND KFOE, AND SHOULD PUSH WEST TO KMHK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE, WITH MORE
CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT NEAR-IFR CEILINGS TOWARDS KMHK. REGARDLESS,
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RISE AND SCATTER OUT OVER THE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS STAY LIGHT AND EASTERLY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...REESE
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