207
FXUS63 KTOP 010725
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
225 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH ONE LAST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TODAY. WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.5" TO 1.5", ISOLATED 3"
AMOUNTS.
- DRY AFTER TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND THEN
GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
OUR DEEP UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE AND RAINY
PATTERN CONTINUES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT DOES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
SOUTHWEST KS, BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS. WE CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SHOWERS REDEVELOP
ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY'S
DISCUSSION THAT TUESDAY EVENING'S SOUNDING AT KTOP SHOWED 2.05" OF
PWAT, TIED FOR SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD FOR ANY SOUNDING AFTER
SEPTEMBER 25. WELL WEDNESDAY EVENING'S SOUNDING TOOK THAT UP A NOTCH
WITH 2.22" OF PWAT, HIGHEST ON RECORD AFTER 9/25. VERY TELLING FOR
HOW EFFICIENT SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN AT PRODUCING RAIN. MANY
PLACES ACROSS NORTHERN KS FROM SABETHA TO CONCORDIA HAVE ALREADY
SEEN 2.5-5" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, THE HIGH
MOISTURE AND REPEATED GENERATION OF CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, INCLUDING AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS THAT HAVEN'T SEEN
QUITE AS MUCH YET. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.5" FOR MOST
PLACES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 3". THE FRONT LOOKS TO FULLY
CLEAR THE AREA BY 0Z, ALLOWING RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO
STEADILY WANE OVER THE EVENING AS BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ADVECT DRIER
AIR SOUTHWARDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET
STRETCH OF OCTOBER WEATHER AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE,
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH
DAY, WITH CRISP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. DOES LOOK LIKE
WE'LL SEE A BIT OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, BUT DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW
WITH CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SO WILL KEEP CEILINGS VFR
UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MAIN TERMINALS. THIS WILL BE WHEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
BECOME MORE LIKELY. ALSO EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHTER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
STAY LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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