809
FXUS63 KTOP 011901
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
201 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE FINAL ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES (ISOLATED TOTALS UP
TO 6 INCHES) THROUGH THE EVENING MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
RIVER FLOODING.
- RAIN EXITS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, RETURNING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TOWARDS THE SFC A
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR TRAINING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. AS
THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, A STOUT
LOW LEVEL JET AND MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG PROVIDES AMPLE FORCING FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS REDEVELOPING AND SLOWLY
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING PERIOD. RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN THE HEAVIER STORMS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR, AND
GIVE THAT SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 0.5 TO 2 INCHES THUS
FAR, IT SEEMED CONCEIVABLE THAT FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT
FOR FAR EASTERN KANSAS, THEREFORE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. FORECAST TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE REFS AND HRRR
MODELS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES, UP TO 6 INCHES OR MORE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS MUCH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE
MUCH MORE PLEASANT IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND, SPREADING EAST INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL STAYS DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
BANDS OF IFR STRATUS PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT
NEAR AND NORTH OF TERMINALS AFT 18Z. COVERAGE OF TSRA IS ANTICIPATED
TO INCREASE AFT 20Z FROM THE WEST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH 00Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
LATEST MODEL TRENDS. BEHIND THE FROPA, NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS, GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS FOR 1-2
HOURS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD, CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY TO VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC FROM 10-15 KTS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...PRIETO
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