241
FXUS63 KTOP 012335
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
- RAIN EXITS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, RETURNING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TOWARDS THE SFC A
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR TRAINING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. AS
THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, A STOUT
LOW LEVEL JET AND MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG PROVIDES AMPLE FORCING FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS REDEVELOPING AND SLOWLY
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING PERIOD. RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN THE HEAVIER STORMS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR, AND
GIVE THAT SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 0.5 TO 2 INCHES THUS
FAR, IT SEEMED CONCEIVABLE THAT FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT
FOR FAR EASTERN KANSAS, THEREFORE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. FORECAST TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE REFS AND HRRR
MODELS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES, UP TO 6 INCHES OR MORE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS MUCH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE
MUCH MORE PLEASANT IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND, SPREADING EAST INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL STAYS DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AND CIGS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE RAIN SLOWLY
END WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, FIRST AT KMHK THEN AT KTOP/KFOE. VFR CONDITIONS HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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