185
FXUS63 KTOP 021736
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE RAIN IS OVER. A DRY AND PLEASANT STRETCH BEGINS TODAY AND
LASTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, GIVING SWOLLEN RIVERS TIME TO FALL.
- A CRISP FALL WEEKEND FOLLOWS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70, LOWS IN THE 40S,
AND PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING OVER THE RECENTLY
SATURATED GROUND.
- A WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 BY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, STAYING MAINLY DRY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW THE DEEP TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEK'S
HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-SOUTH,
CARRYING THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. WV
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A DRY, SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY, HELPING TO PUSH THE
LAST OF THE REMNANT SHOWERS EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK OR
SHORTLY AFTER. THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FINALLY BRING A FALL-LIKE FEEL
TO THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S TODAY. THE
RAIN IS FINISHED, BUT RECOVERY FROM THE FLOODING LINGERS AS AREA
RIVERS WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND TO RECEDE.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUIET AND CRISP, VERY FALL-LIKE. HIGHS HOLD
NEAR 70 BOTH DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S, LIGHT WINDS, AND
WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG CAN'T YET BE RULED OUT BUT LOOKS OVERALL LOW:
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS GENERALLY NARROW AROUND SUNRISE WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVER GROUND STILL SATURATED FROM THE FLOODING, SO IF
PATCHY FOG DOES FORM IT WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW-LYING SPOTS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA. A REINFORCING DRY PUSH SUNDAY
NIGHT KEEPS MONDAY SEASONABLY COOL WITH ANOTHER MORNING IN THE
40S.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK,
AND EVERY WPC CLUSTER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND NO CLUSTER
BRINGS A MEANINGFUL WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. ENSEMBLE
PRECIPITATION STAYS NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HIGHS CLIMB
STEADILY, REACHING NEAR 80 BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH IS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING. SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM SIGNALS TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD REFLECT GROWING ENSEMBLE SPREAD RATHER THAN
ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY,
SLIGHTLY WARMING FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK IS HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10 KTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG (PARTICULARLY IN
LOWER VALLEYS) SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RECENT MOISTURE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN
GUIDANCE BEFORE FEELING CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT FOG IMPACTING
TERMINALS TO INSERT MENTION IN TAFS. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, SO THAT COULD HELP PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT.
OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS EVALUATE FURTHER. VFR
OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE ESE LATER SATURDAY
MORNING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...PICHA
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